Accolades to all the candidates, winners and losers, whose races will finish tomorrow. Thank you for running, for doing your civic duty, for sacrificing your time and sanity, and for being good-natured little butterflies in Your Gilbert’s torturing fingers. Those who do not prevail may chortle at the thought that the winners are now at Our Mercy – for two whole years! Muwhahahahahaaa!
Here are the goods:
What percentages do you see in Ward 4 for —
– Terry Seamens – 80%
– Eric Mendoza – 20%
What percentages do you see in Ward 6 for —
– Fritz Schultz – 65%
– Navid Nasr – 33%
How many votes will be cast for mayor city-wide? 2000
What percentage of the mayoral vote will go to —
– Bruce Williams = 70%
– Roger Schlegel = 29%
[- write-ins = 1%]
How many voters will there be by Ward?
1: 500 2: 400 3: 600 4: 200 5:100 6: 200
Mayoral challenger Roger Schlegel’s strongest support will be in his home Ward 3 – the Pinecrest section which has been a challenger-friendly neighborhood since it was annexed in 1997 by the city and Montgomery County. We predict he will garner 40% of the vote there. Ward 3 is large, however, and also the home ward of incumbent Mayor Bruce Williams. So, the section of Ward 3 west of Carroll Ave. is locked in for Williams.
The two wards that have contests for council seat, Ward 4 and Ward 6, are not historically heavy-voting wards, so neither mayoral candidate will benefit much from the extra votes cast in those races. Ward 6 may hand as much as 35 – 40% of its vote to Schlegel but that will amount to only around 70 votes. Ward 4 will land solidly on the Mayor’s side with about 90% of it’s 200 votes.
Schlegel may get as much as 25-35% of the Ward 1 vote, but the rest of the wards will give him around 10% of their votes.
Terry Seamen’s will easily net re-election. Eric Mendoza, though raising important issues about the city’s youth, is unlikely to seat the well-established Seamens. He is to be commended for running, however, as his is the only challenge to an incumbent councilmember. The rest are running unopposed.
In Ward 6, the outcome is the hardest to predict. Both candidates are capable. Nadir Nasr would be the only renter on the council, and he is younger than most of the other councilmembers. This would make him a great asset to the council, in Our Humble Opinion. His concerns about gentrification in the Crossroads area come at a crucial time.
Fred Schultz, however, has a longer record of service to the city – having served on the Public Citizens Safety Advisory Committee for 5 years. He seems to be better known around his ward, and we have one anecdotal report that his campaign efforts (literature/signage, etc) have have been more effective than Mr. Nasr’s – in the areas to the west of New Hampshire Ave, anyway. Mr. Nasr has made a point of wanting to represent the mostly-rental residents to the east of New Hampshire Ave – what he calls the “forgotten part of the forgotten ward.” Whether he can rouse enough renters to vote and find votes on the other side of the avenue will be the crucial point in this election. Either way, Ward 6 will have a strong advocate on the council.