Our Predictions

Dear Readers,

We can taste that drink already! Seth Grimes posed the following questions in his election year contest – a traditional event, considering that this is the second in a row.

Accolades to all the candidates, winners and losers, whose races will finish tomorrow. Thank you for running, for doing your civic duty, for sacrificing your time and sanity, and for being good-natured little butterflies in Your Gilbert’s torturing fingers. Those who do not prevail may chortle at the thought that the winners are now at Our Mercy – for two whole years! Muwhahahahahaaa!

Here are the goods:

(continued)


What percentages do you see in Ward 4 for —
– Terry Seamens – 80%
– Eric Mendoza – 20%

What percentages do you see in Ward 6 for —
– Fritz Schultz – 65%
– Navid Nasr – 33%

How many votes will be cast for mayor city-wide? 2000
What percentage of the mayoral vote will go to —
– Bruce Williams = 70%
– Roger Schlegel = 29%
[- write-ins = 1%]

How many voters will there be by Ward?
1: 500 2: 400 3: 600 4: 200 5:100 6: 200

Mayoral challenger Roger Schlegel’s strongest support will be in his home Ward 3 – the Pinecrest section which has been a challenger-friendly neighborhood since it was annexed in 1997 by the city and Montgomery County. We predict he will garner 40% of the vote there. Ward 3 is large, however, and also the home ward of incumbent Mayor Bruce Williams. So, the section of Ward 3 west of Carroll Ave. is locked in for Williams.

The two wards that have contests for council seat, Ward 4 and Ward 6, are not historically heavy-voting wards, so neither mayoral candidate will benefit much from the extra votes cast in those races. Ward 6 may hand as much as 35 – 40% of its vote to Schlegel but that will amount to only around 70 votes. Ward 4 will land solidly on the Mayor’s side with about 90% of it’s 200 votes.

Schlegel may get as much as 25-35% of the Ward 1 vote, but the rest of the wards will give him around 10% of their votes.

Terry Seamen’s will easily net re-election. Eric Mendoza, though raising important issues about the city’s youth, is unlikely to seat the well-established Seamens. He is to be commended for running, however, as his is the only challenge to an incumbent councilmember. The rest are running unopposed.

In Ward 6, the outcome is the hardest to predict. Both candidates are capable. Nadir Nasr would be the only renter on the council, and he is younger than most of the other councilmembers. This would make him a great asset to the council, in Our Humble Opinion. His concerns about gentrification in the Crossroads area come at a crucial time.

Fred Schultz, however, has a longer record of service to the city – having served on the Public Citizens Safety Advisory Committee for 5 years. He seems to be better known around his ward, and we have one anecdotal report that his campaign efforts (literature/signage, etc) have have been more effective than Mr. Nasr’s – in the areas to the west of New Hampshire Ave, anyway. Mr. Nasr has made a point of wanting to represent the mostly-rental residents to the east of New Hampshire Ave – what he calls the “forgotten part of the forgotten ward.” Whether he can rouse enough renters to vote and find votes on the other side of the avenue will be the crucial point in this election. Either way, Ward 6 will have a strong advocate on the council.

– Gilbert.

About the Author

Gilbert
Gilbert is the pseudonym of a hard-bitten, hard-drinking, long-time Takoma Park resident who maintains the granolapark blog. Gilbert and William L. Brown — Granola Park's mild-mannered chief of staff, researcher, and drink pourer — have never been seen in the same place at the same time.

6 Comments on "Our Predictions"

  1. Seth Grimes | November 2, 2009 at 9:26 pm |

    What percentages do you see in Ward 4 for —
    – Terry Seamens 86%
    – Eric Mendoza 13%
    What percentages do you see in Ward 6 for —
    – Fritz Schultz 81%
    – Navid Nasr 18%
    How many votes will be cast for mayor city-wide? 1,246
    What percentage of the mayoral vote will go to —
    – Bruce Williams 73%
    – Roger Schlegel 24%
    How many voters will there be by Ward?
    1: 347; 2: 194; 3: 413; 4: 133; 5: 62; 6: 107
    (total: 1,256)

  2. Josh Wright | November 2, 2009 at 9:51 pm |

    What percentages do you see in Ward 4 for —
    – Terry Seamens 82%
    – Eric Mendoza 18%
    What percentages do you see in Ward 6 for —
    – Fritz Schultz 70%
    – Navid Nasr 30%
    How many votes will be cast for mayor city-wide? 2,160
    What percentage of the mayoral vote will go to —
    – Bruce Williams 65%
    – Roger Schlegel 35%
    How many voters will there be by Ward?
    1: 621; 2: 431; 3: 629; 4: 199; 5: 140; 6: 140
    (total: 2,160)

  3. Colleen Clay | November 3, 2009 at 12:01 am |

    What percentages do you see in Ward 4 for —
    – Terry Seamens 87%
    – Eric Mendoza 13%
    What percentages do you see in Ward 6 for —
    – Fritz Schultz 83%
    – Navid Nasr 17%
    How many votes will be cast for mayor city-wide? 1,525
    What percentage of the mayoral vote will go to —
    – Bruce Williams 77%
    – Roger Schlegel 23%
    How many voters will there be by Ward?
    1: 425; 2: 325; 3: 475; 4: 100; 5: 75; 6: 125
    (total: 1,525)

  4. Tom Gagliardo | November 3, 2009 at 11:08 am |

    I’ll pick 1800 total votes for mayor. Here’s why (besides so little campaigning):
    When Kathy Porter was challenged by Seth Grimes in 2005 the total was 2500. Seth was from Ward 1 (752 votes for all candidates) and Kathy from Ward 2 (661 votes for all candidates). Both of these wards traditionally turn out in numbers.
    This election both Bruce Williams and Roger Schlegel are from Ward 3, which also turns out in numbers (583 total votes in 2005), but they will be vying for the same neighbors’ votes.
    I am surely not the only who thinks that candidates are likely to turn out more voters in their own neighborhoods (which accounts for the vastly greater number of Roger signs south-ish of Carroll and north-ish of Eastern.
    So even accounting for Josh Wright campaigning for Bruce in Ward 1, I figure the turnout has to be less than in the Porter-Grimes race by about 30%.
    Because putting any name on the ballot is likely to garner 20%, I predict Schlegel, who articulated reasons to vote for him rather than the incumbent (leadership and distinguishing between what we want and what we need — both of which he can define more precisely in the next two years) should get 35%. Too bad he didn’t run a more vigorous campaign. Had he gotten his message out with city-wide leafleting a month ago and reinforced it once or twice after that this would have been a competitive race.
    P.S. Serious candidates will begin their 2011 campaigns tomorrow.
    P.P.S. Thanks to all who ran.

  5. We had similar thoughts, Tom, though we had the help of an army of staff researchers and outside consultants brought in for the election season. We have enough personnel to station someone with a clipboard on every street corner in town, where they have been for the last week, 24 hours a day (in shifts, of course).
    We predict around 600 Ward 3 votes for the same reasons you cite – both mayoral candidates are from Ward 3. We think Schlegel will bring in enough new voters to top the 2005 Ward 3 vote of 553. That was in a race with no council seat race (same as now) and a mayoral race, but neither of those candidates were from Ward 3. So, we think the fact that both candidates are Threefers will push up the numbers in that ward.
    Yes, councilmember Josh Wright has been campaigning – his signs are prolific, often in tandem with Mayor Williams’ signs – despite the fact Wright has no challenger. That’s why we think the number of voters in Ward 1 will be around 500 – a high number for an uncontested ward race (in other such races the numbers were 262 and 202 but those were years in which there were no mayoral races: 2007 and 2003).
    As Tom notes, the last time there was a mayoral race but no Ward 1 race, that ward turned out 674 votes. But, as Tom also notes, a mayoral candidate was from Ward 1. So, we think there will be fewer voters this time – but due to the mayoral contest and councilmember Wright’s efforts, it will get up to around 500.
    – Gilbert

  6. At 5:00 pm election day, an election judge said that as of 3:00 pm 1000 people had voted. At 5:00 pm, which is the beginning of the heaviest voting activity, there was a steady line of 25 – 30 people which took about 15 minutes to process each person.
    All the candidates were present outside. There were 1 survey, 1 petition, and 1 questionnaire to fill out as one leaves. Coincidentally, the petition was about decriminalizing marijuanna.
    – Gilbert

Comments are closed.